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Consumer Price Index for Food
The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased by 0.8 percent from December 2021 to January 2022 before seasonal adjustment, up 7.5 percent from January 2021. The CPI for all food increased 1.0 percent from December 2021 to January 2022, and food prices were 7.0 percent higher than in January 2021.
The level of food price inflation varies depending on whether the food was purchased for consumption away from home or at home:
The food-away-from-home (restaurant purchases) CPI increased 0.7 percent in January 2022 and was 6.4 percent higher than January 2021; and
The food-at-home (grocery store or supermarket food purchases) CPI increased 1.2 percent from December 2021 to January 2022 and was 7.4 percent higher than January 2021.
Food price increases are expected to be between 20-year averages and the rapid increases observed during the pandemic. In 2022, food-at-home prices are predicted to increase between 2.0 and 3.0 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase between 4.0 and 5.0 percent. Price increases for food away from home are expected to exceed historical averages and be similar to the inflation rate in 2021. Upward pressures on meat prices are expected to ease in the latter half of 2022.
CPI Forecast Changes This Month
The ranges for eight food categories, as well as for three aggregate categories, were revised upward this month. Forecast ranges for fish and seafood, dairy products, fats and oils, fresh fruits, processed fruits and vegetables, cereals and bakery products, nonalcoholic beverages, and other foods, as well as the aggregate categories of all food, food away from home, and food at home were revised upward. No food categories were revised downward.
The large increases in all-food, food-away-from-home, and food-at-home prices in January were driven by price increases for many products. While prices for the aggregate category of meats decreased, prices for 11 disaggregate food categories increased by more than a percent. All food prices are now predicted to increase between 2.5 and 3.5 percent; food-away-from-home prices are predicted to increase between 4.0 and 5.0 percent; and food-at-home prices are predicted to increase between 2.0 and 3.0 percent in 2022.
Fish and seafood prices have continued to rise—by 1.3 percent in January 2022—due in large part to a 2.4-percent increase in the price of fresh fish and seafood. Fish and seafood prices are predicted to increase between 3.5 and 4.5 percent in 2022.
Rapid increases in the consumption of dairy products have driven increases in retail prices in recent months. This trend continued in January 2022 with a 1.4-percent increase in the prices for dairy products. Dairy product prices are predicted to increase between 2.5 and 3.5 percent in 2022.
Following large price increases in January, forecast ranges for fats and oils, fresh fruits, processed fruits and vegetables, cereal and bakery products, nonalcoholic beverages, and other foods have been adjusted upward.
Fats and oil prices are predicted to increase between 3.0 and 4.0 percent; fresh fruit prices are predicted to increase between 2.0 and 3.0 percent; processed fruit and vegetable prices are predicted to increase between 2.5 and 3.5 percent; cereal and bakery product prices are predicted to increase between 2.0 and 3.0 percent; nonalcoholic beverage prices are predicted to increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent; and other food prices are predicted to increase between 1.5 and 2.5 percent in 2022 compared with 2021.
PPI Forecast Changes This Month
PPI forecast ranges for farm-level cattle, wholesale beef, wholesale poultry, and farm-level fruits were revised upward this month. Forecast ranges for wholesale pork and farm-level vegetables were revised downward.
Farm-level cattle prices have mirrored beef prices, which were 22.8 and 43.9 percent higher in January 2022 than January 2021, respectively. High global demand for U.S. beef has driven price increases in this sector. Farm-level cattle prices are predicted to increase between 7.5 and 10.5 percent in 2022. Wholesale beef prices are predicted to increase between 4.5 and 7.5 percent.
Wholesale pork prices decreased by 4.3 percent in January 2022 but remain 3.3 percent above January 2021 prices. Wholesale pork prices are now predicted to increase between 0.0 and 3.0 percent in 2022.
Wholesale poultry prices increased by 3.1 percent from December 2021 to January 2022, with decreasing levels of chicken meat in cold storage. Wholesale poultry prices are now predicted to increase between 4.0 and 7.0 percent in 2022.
Farm-level fruit prices increased by 3.9 percent, while farm-level vegetable prices decreased by 3.4 percent from December 2021 to January 2022. Farm-level fruit prices are now predicted to increase between 1.0 and 4.0 percent in 2022, and Farm-level vegetable prices are predicted to increase between 0.0 and 3.0 percent in 2022.
USDA
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